As shoppers do all they can to save at the grocery store, there's a growing gap between two kinds of stores: National chains that generally keep prices stable week-to-week and regional stores that run sporadic sales.

Inflation in food prices is putting that different into stark contrast, as picking the right store can mean saving or losing 25 percent on a $80 grocery run.

In the last two years, Walmart and Target have managed to limit food price inflation to less than 10 percent – no small feat considering the skyrocketing cost of foods like butter, bacon, eggs, coffee and milk.

By contrast, regional Florida stores like Publix and Sweetbay have raised prices dramatically, according to two years worth of prices collected by the Tribune on 30 typical grocery items.

Winn-Dixie normally is the most expensive store for a basket of items, followed in order by Publix, Sweetbay, Target and Walmart.

Nearly all food items have risen in price in recent weeks, and there is only a hint of silver lining in the future, according to food economists.

"The rate of food price inflation will slow down," said Ricky Volpe, an economist for the U.S. Department of Agriculture. "We're not looking for prices to turn around and go lower. But the rate of increase will slow down and approach a more historically normal rate."

That will come after one wild ride.

Food prices really shot up in 2007, Volpe said, but fell rapidly in 2009 amid the first economic downturn. So producers including corn farmers and cattle ranchers cut back production.

Then, everything cut loose.

Energy costs rose, farmers diverted grains like corn to biofuel production, and demand for better foods started rising quickly in China and Southeast Asia, Volpe said.

Combined with a relatively weaker U.S. dollar, and slimmer production in the United States, Volpe predicts food prices to rise 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent in 2011, with the biggest spikes in foods that use a lot of commodities, like milk, beef, poultry and bacon.